STOCK'S BACK TO FUTURE

By the time the NYC Stock Exchange closed today, Dow Jones average was down to 7552 points. The financial media say that this is as low as where the index was in 2002. That's telling us less than half of the truth.

The 7500 index was experienced only briefly in July 2002, and then again for another short period in September 2002. For a realistic comparison with what happened today one needs to go back to week of june 6-13, 1997. Thats right, more than 11 years ago the stocks slowly and expectedly went up from 7200 to 7600.

So, in reality, what we are seeing today is a return not to 6 years ago, but sadly to almost 12 years ago. Except, this time, the fortunes are slowly and expectedly going down. If you believe Suzi Orman and Ali Velshi (CNN), the button of the stock market was supposed to be somewhere between 8500 and 9000. These guys were sending people to buy stocks for all of last month, saying if you don't need your money for a couple of years, it's really a good time to buy Ford, Google and Citigroup.

Sure.

The year 1994 in very important in the recent developments. That's when the Clinton administration removed the first set of checks and balances that had restricted shady business since FDR's measures in the 30's. A quick look at the stock charts shows us that in 1994, before the restrictions were removed, the market had a modest gain from 3700 to 3900.

Compare this with the gains for 1995: 3900 to 5200. then in 1996: 5200 to 6700 and in 1997: 6700 to 7800. This is the same 1997 that I was just talking about a few paragraph earlier. But I don't think that the 1997 level is low enough. To shed all the fake advances of the last 13 years, the stocks will have to go to where they were in before then. That is before the Clinton financial team screw things up, plus a couple of years for safety. Now we can arrive at a more conservative estimate of a real bottom, around 3000. It's like the retro 90's we are currently starting.

Right now we are in the preparation mode for what is going to later happen. We may spend the next two years going slowly down to get there. Don't forget, these two years will happen on Obama's watch, and people would more or less come to hate him for his inability to fully address the problems.

I love the retro 90's, but I hope I am wrong about the rest.